U.S. solar module imports are expected to decline throughout 2025 following the expiration of tariff exemptions for Chinese-origin modules assembled in Southeast Asia. However, the increase in solar cell imports signals a positive trend for domestic companies involved in building the solar energy value chain within the United States.

According to industry sources on January 2, U.S. solar module imports peaked at 5.88 GW (gigawatts) in May 2024 but began to decline in June 2024. This downturn coincided with the expiration of duty-free measures on June 6 for panels assembled in four Southeast Asian countries—Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia. These countries have been widely regarded as alternative routes for Chinese manufacturers to assemble and export solar modules to the U.S. market.

In contrast, U.S. solar cell imports have significantly increased, rising from a low of 0.71 GW in April 2024 to 1.41 GW in October 2024—an approximately 100% growth. Cumulative solar cell imports for the U.S. reached 10.86 GW by October, a staggering 281% year-over-year increase. This growth is largely attributed to the tariff rate quota system implemented under the U.S. International Trade Commission's (ITC) safeguard measures.

In January 2018, during the Trump administration, the U.S. introduced a safeguard policy that exempted tariffs on annual imports of up to 2.5 GW of crystalline silicon solar cells. In February 2022, President Biden raised the quota to 5 GW, and in August 2023, expanded it further to 12.5 GW. Imports exceeding this limit remain subject to a 14.25% tariff. This policy adjustment has been identified as a key factor driving the substantial increase in U.S. solar cell imports.

In this context, the U.S. is projected to face a mid- to long-term shortage in solar cell production capacity compared to its module production capacity. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), the U.S. has an estimated solar module production capacity of approximately 40 GW, but its cell production capacity is below 10 GW. As a result, the U.S. is expected to rely heavily on imported cells to meet its module production needs.

This reliance is seen as a positive signal for domestic companies establishing solar value chains in the U.S., such as Hanwha Solutions' Qcells division (Hanwha Qcells). Hanwha Qcells is anticipated to benefit significantly as it invests over 3 trillion KRW to create a "solar hub" in the U.S. The hub will include the entire solar value chain, from ingot and wafer production to cells and modules, with the project slated for completion in early 2025.

Hanwha Qcells is expanding its production capabilities, targeting a total capacity of 8.4 GW by combining its upgraded Dalton plant and the newly constructed Cartersville plant. This comprehensive approach positions Hanwha Qcells as a key player in addressing the U.S. solar industry's cell production gap.

OCI Holdings is also targeting long-term performance growth through the expansion of its solar value chain in the U.S. The company is reportedly working to establish a joint venture in the U.S., aiming to enhance its vertical integration. This includes leveraging OCIM's polysilicon production, MSE in Texas, and OCI Energy to build a non-China-centric solar value chain.

A potential variable, however, is the shift in energy policies under the second Trump administration. While there is speculation that a return to some fossil fuels may occur, the dominant view is that the administration will intensify its stance on containing China.

An industry insider noted, "If the Trump administration's measures to counter China become more aggressive, it could create significant opportunities for domestic solar companies."

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